Storm Chances Increasing This Week

Unseasonably warm and muggy weather will continue for the next few days with a chance for scattered showers and storms.

A few storms could be strong to severe at times. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s and a few lower 90s today and tomorrow, with a general reduction and daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will remain into the mid-60s this week.

The Morning Weather Podcast

A rather messy upper air pattern will persist for the next few days. A series of thunderstorms across the central US this morning will shove an outflow or weak front southward into part of Northern Oklahoma this morning. This boundary is expected to remain near Highway 412 tonight before lifting northward as a warm front Tuesday. A few scattered storms will be possible near this feature later tonight and overnight. Additional scattered storms will remain possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in some of the same areas, mostly across the northern third of the state. Any storm activity could become strong to severe, but a slightly higher chance for severe storms will arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.

A quasi-closed low over part of Texas will begin drifting north Tuesday evening as a stronger upper-level wave develops across the western United States. As the upper low from Texas advances northward, this will bring scattered showers and storms in the part of Eastern Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday. The additional cloud cover and scattered showers would result in slightly lower temperatures for the middle to the end of the week.

As the stronger western US trough nears the four corners area, the stronger flow will result in more organized severe weather chances across the high plains of Texas, far western Oklahoma, and a large portion of central and western Kansas Thursday. This upper-level feature is projected to lift Northeast away from the area Friday. But lingering moisture with a relatively uncapped atmosphere, along with temperatures in the 80s will result in additional scattered showers and storm chances Friday through the weekend as another disturbance nears the state. A surface front is expected to arrive Saturday evening into Sunday bringing north winds and near normal temperatures for Mother’s Day.

Regarding this afternoon and tonight: The actual result of any storm activity could have an impact on tomorrow’s storm chance. In other words, what happens today could have changes for what happens tomorrow regarding the convective activity.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone