Tulsa and Green Country Weather: Scattered storms and muggy weather continues

Showers or storms will remain possible early this morning as a weak disturbance lingers across eastern Oklahoma. Abundant moisture remains in the atmosphere and pockets of locally heavy rainfall will be possible in a few spots this morning. Morning temperatures will linger in the 70s and 80s, rising to the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. Due to the tropical moisture in the atmosphere combined with local evapotranspiration rates, heat index values will be nearing 100 this afternoon.

Tuesday Afternoon

A weak surface boundary is positioned just north of the immediate area, stretching from southern Kansas into southern Missouri. This boundary will slowly move southward later today as a weak upper-level disturbance approaches the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near and ahead of this feature. Additionally, a complex of storms that formed last night across Nebraska will move southeast this morning across the Kansas City metro area and will attempt to move across far southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri midday. This complex may also generate a separate outflow that could trigger showers and storms across part of northeastern Oklahoma midday to early afternoon. The exact location and coverage of storms remains a low confidence due to preexisting boundary conditions that formed from yesterday afternoon and evening storms across the area.

Any Severe Threats?

Any mature storms that do form this afternoon may become severe, producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, very heavy rainfall, and possibly some hail. Localized flooding could occur beneath stronger, mature storms. Forecast data remains unclear regarding the exact placement of the higher storm probabilities, but at least one or two storm segments or complexes may evolve this afternoon into early evening. These systems should briefly push southward before dissipating early Wednesday.

Rain Gear Wednesday?

You may be able to leave the rain gear at home on Wednesday until later Wednesday night. A few lingering showers or storms could remain in the area through midday Wednesday, but most locations will remain dry through the day. Morning lows are expected in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values will be moving into the upper 90s to near 103.

Late Wednesday Evening

A mid-level ridge of high pressure will stay anchored to the west, maintaining northwest flow across the central and southern Plains latter this week. This pattern may support another storm system Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning moving from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall and some damaging wind potential would be possible with this complex with the greater threat for severe storms mostly across southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma late Wednesday evening, possibly lingering into pre-dawn Thursday.

Prepare For More Heat Stress

More pressing concerns shift to heat stress by mid to late week. Morning lows will be in the mid-70s, with daytime highs approaching the mid-90s. Heat index values may climb to between 102 and 105. Some areas could meet heat advisory criteria for Thursday and Friday. Regardless, heat stress will become increasingly impactful.

Weekend Rain?

Yes, the probability for rain and storms will be increasing at times this weekend. Several signals point to renewed storm development across central Kansas, with storm complexes tracking southward along the northwest flow pattern. Storm chances will extend into the area both Saturday and Sunday. A strong upper-level disturbance crossing the northern High Plains on Saturday could provide additional support for storm organization over Kansas, potentially resulting in one or two organized storm clusters moving southward.

While timing and exact probabilities remain uncertain, there will likely be at least a low to moderate risk for storms this weekend. Be sure to check back for forecast updates as confidence improves in the coming days.

Recreational Impacts

Area lake levels remain elevated, which could impact some recreational areas. Many lakes also have floating debris. Use extra caution on the water. Levels are slowly dropping, but will remain high for the upcoming week.

The Morning Weather Podcast:

The daily morning weather podcast briefing will remain on hold indefinitely due to ongoing internal workflow issues.

We're working to resolve these challenges as soon as possible and appreciate your patience. We apologize for the inconvenience and hope to be back soon. Thank you for your understanding.

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Emergency Info: Outages Across Oklahoma:

Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric cooperatives, many of which have overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps.

1. PSO Outage Map
2. OG&E Outage Map
3. VVEC Outage Map
4. Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map
5. Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage Map — (Note: Several Smaller Co-ops Included)

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