NBA Finals: Early look at Thunder vs Pacers

Preseason Odds: A Tale of Two Underdogs

The path to the Finals was improbable from the jump:

1. Thunder: +300 to win the West (25% implied probability), hampered by skepticism about their youth (average age: 24.7).
2. Pacers: +2500 to win the East — seventh shortest odds behind Boston, Milwaukee, Philly, Miami, and Atlanta.

How We Got Here: Paul George

Both franchises got here through bold trades, and oddly enough, both centered around Paul George.

1. In 2019, OKC traded George to the Clippers, receiving a treasure chest of picks and a wiry 21-year-old named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Since then, SGA has blossomed into the 2025 NBA MVP and scoring champion, carrying the Thunder to their first Finals since 2012.
2. In 2022, Indiana sent Domantas Sabonis, acquired in the original George trade to Sacramento for Tyrese Haliburton. The move was questioned at the time. It’s not anymore. Haliburton has become a multi-time All-Star and the creative engine of one of the NBA’s most dynamic offenses.

New Star Power

This isn’t a Finals of familiar megastars, instead, it's a celebration of elite team basketball and the future of the NBA.

1. Indiana Pacers: Led by Tyrese Haliburton, their offense is fast, fluid, and pass-happy.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Behind MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they play at breakneck speed with five-out spacing and relentless downhill attacks.

The Turnover Advantage

An overlooked yet crucial edge: ball security.

Since January 1st:

1. Only OKC and Indiana have averaged fewer than 7 live-ball turnovers per game.
2. Both teams are top six in pace, yet they minimize mistakes.

This efficiency fuels their offensive engines, and it starts with their star guards. Both SGA and Haliburton rarely turn it over while forcing plenty on the other end.

Key Additions for OKC

The Thunder’s Finals run was supercharged by perfect-fit moves:

1. Alex Caruso: Defensive menace and playoff-tested guard. He’s shot 41.5% from deep and holds a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
2. Isaiah Hartenstein: Provided crucial rim protection and physicality, especially with Chet Holmgren out early. OKC went 33-4 in games he played without Holmgren.

Pacers: Clutch

No team in the NBA this year was better in close games:

1. +20 clutch net rating in both regular and postseason.
2. Engineered three of the biggest playoff comebacks in recent history.
3. Built on chemistry and continuity, with smart, instinctive players who know their roles.
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What to Watch For

1. Tempo

OKC wants control, forcing you into the half-court. Their defense, one of the best of the last 20 years, has already turned Jokic and Ant Edwards into volume shooters. With Alex Caruso and Lu Dort, they’ll throw waves of physicality at Haliburton.

Indiana is outscoring teams by nearly nine points per game in transition and leads the league in clutch net rating. The first five seconds of the shot clock may decide this series more than the last five.

2. Star PG

Whichever point guard can imprint their rhythm likely controls this series. Can Haliburton keep Indiana’s ball movement crisp against OKC’s pressure? Can SGA solve a defense without compromising his pace?

Expect heavy minutes for Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith as Indiana tries to contain SGA. On the flip side, Caruso, Dort, and Cason Wallace will do everything to keep Haliburton out of the lane.

3. Role Player

1. OKC’s depth is brutal: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, they’re young, long, switchable, and composed.
2. Indiana’s bench is relentless: Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, and T.J. McConnell, all capable of having a big impact.

Consistency

Since January 1st:

1. Only OKC and Indiana won 45+ games.
2. The Thunder were steady all year; the Pacers surged after a 10-15 start, overcoming early injuries.

Young and Ready

These two teams weren’t even featured on the NBA’s Christmas Day slate

1. OKC: Youngest Finals team since 1977 (and youngest ever by average age).
2. Indiana: Six of their top ten rotation players are 25 or younger.

This Finals flips the script on outdated playoff narratives that young teams can’t win, or fast teams can’t thrive in the halfcourt. Both are ready to rewrite those assumptions.