Thunder on the brink: Up 3–1, OKC stares down NBA Finals with historical data on its side

As of now, the Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in that enviable position, leading the Minnesota Timberwolves 3-1 in the West Finals. With history heavily favoring teams in OKC's current spot, the Thunder are statistically on the brink of advancing to their first NBA Finals since 2012. Teams leading 3-1 in the Conference Finals or later, with homecourt advantage, are 61-2 in terms of winning the series.

In NBA playoff history, teams holding a 3-1 series lead in a best-of-seven format have an overwhelming advantage. Out of 293 such instances, 280 teams (95.6%) secured the series victory, while only 13 teams (4.4%) managed to rally from a 1-3 deficit to win the series. via LandofBasketball

The most notable comeback occurred in the 2016 NBA Finals when the Cleveland Cavaliers overcame a 3-1 deficit against the Golden State Warriors, marking the only time a team has achieved this feat in the Finals .

In the 2020 playoffs, the Denver Nuggets remarkably achieved two 3-1 comebacks in a single postseason, defeating both the Utah Jazz in the first round and the Los Angeles Clippers in the semifinals .

For teams trailing 3-1, the path to victory is arduous. Of the 36 series that extended to a Game 7 after a 3-1 lead, the team initially leading won 23 times (63.9%), while the trailing team completed the comeback in 13 instances (36.1%)

NBA Teams to Come Back from a 3–1 Deficit in a Best-of-7