NBA MVP rankings: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a lock over Nikola Jokić

It's the final week of the 2024-25 regular season, and while plenty is left to be decided in the playoff races, the individual player award races appear to be pretty much over. With the obvious qualifier that nothing is set in stone, Payton Pritchard is going to win Sixth Man of the Year. The same can almost surely be said for Stephon Castle as Rookie of the Year, Draymond Green as Defensive Player of the Year and probably Dyson Daniels as Most Improved Player -- although Cade Cunningham is a a threat for that one. Jalen Brunson is the favorite for Clutch Player of the Year. 

Which brings us to MVP. Another race that sounds close and probably should be close but ultimately isn't going to be. This race is over. I'll be happy to eat my words if it doesn't play out this way at the top, but I'm not at all worried about having to do that. This isn't to suggest I necessarily agree with this finishing order, but below is how I see the top-five voting playing out for MVP. 

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

This is actually pretty simple: The Thunder are going to win damn near 70 games with one of the best point differentials of all time. SGA -- a heavy favorite to win MVP over Nikola Jokić with -3000 odds at BetMGM -- is going to win the scoring title. His contributions to an all-time defense are exaggerated, but it surely is true that he is, in fact, a disruptive contributor on that end. You can say voter fatigue isn't a factor, but that's not genuine. You can say it being "someone's time" isn't a real thing, that this isn't a lifetime achievement award, but in reality that's exactly how it works. Jokić was the best player in the world in 2023, but it was Joel Embiid's time. Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the world, probably by an even greater margin, but this is SGA's time. 

2. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets

Jokić is a three-time MVP who is having the best season of his career and one of the best in history. He's top four in scoring, assists, rebounds and steals per game. It's the same old story with the Nuggets (who just fired their head coach with six days left in the regular season): They fall off a cliff when to the tune of almost 21 points per 100 possessions when Jokic sits, per Cleaning the Glass. Jokić is going to finish with the highest PER in history, shattering his own record. But again, he's already won three times and as long as a first-time winner has a justifiable case, which SGA more than does, voters are going to err on the side of rewarding the new guy, especially when Jokić's Nuggets might still drop into the play-in. 

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

Giannis has no chance of winning the MVP but he's going to clear the 65-game threshold and finish third in this race as the only player in history, at present, to average at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and six assists on better than 60% shooting. Last week, Antetokounmpo became the first player to record 70 points, 30 assists and 30 rebounds over a two-game span since Wilt Chamberlain in 1968.