Thunderstorms, Hail Pass Through Tulsa, Eastern Oklahoma

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Delaware County until 2:45pm.

While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Kay, Lincoln, Mayes, Muskogee, Noble, Nowata, Okmulgee, Osage, Ottawa, Pawnee, Payne, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner, and Washington County until 5:00 pm.

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The mid-level ridge centered across the desert southwest will be expanding north and east over the next 24 to 48 hours. The northwest flow aloft currently across Northern Oklahoma should move slowly northeast Monday and early Tuesday morning. Another round of showers or storms should develop later tonight and scoot across this upper airflow but most if not all of these should remain slightly to our northeast. As the northern periphery of the ridge strengthens, hotter temperatures are likely to expand across the state. Low-level moisture remains quite robust and local evapotranspiration will continue to add higher moisture content to the boundary layer. The result will be increasing heat index values both Monday and Tuesday, possibly extending through at least Thursday before another front arrives. Before the front arrives, heat advisories are likely, and some locations may eventually be included in heat warnings Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures on Monday afternoon may be slightly muted due to mid-morning convective debris, but afternoon highs are anticipated to reach at least the lower 90s and possibly the mid-90s in a few locations. Heat index values will be from 105 to 112.

Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the upper 70s or even lower 80s near the Tulsa metro with cooler locations in the valley. Tropical moisture will allow daytime highs on Tuesday to feel more like 105 to near 114. Heat advisories are likely, and excessive heat warnings should be required for a few counties in Northern Oklahoma. Actual temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 90s with a few 100 readings. Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will also support morning lows in the lower 80s in Tulsa with daytime highs in the upper 90s or near triple digits, with heat advisories or excessive heat warnings remaining due to heat index values ranging from 105 to near 113. Yet once again the mid-level ridge will begin to weaken and retrograde westward by the end of the week. This allows another moderately strong northwest flow pattern to develop across the Central Plains. Most data suggest another surface boundary will approach the area Thursday bringing a few showers and storms back into the forecast, mostly Thursday evening into early Friday morning. As the front passes northern Oklahoma, a minor air mass change will occur Friday into part of the weekend. Like this past weekend, this should take the edge off afternoon highs and heat indices by a few degrees. Friday morning temperatures will drop into the lower 70s in the Tulsa metro with upper 60s and Valley locations. Daytime highs are expected below seasonal averages Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs into the mid to upper 80s. Based on the pattern alone, a few additional showers or storms will be possible. The exact position of the surface boundary will be a focus for possible MCS flow over the weekend. This may again be focused along the Red River Valley into North Texas for higher probabilities.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone