Oklahoma and nationwide gas prices drop despite Middle East turmoil and Iran-Israel ceasefire

Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and recent U.S. military action, gasoline prices in the U.S. are trending downward, a surprise development amid global uncertainty.

A fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel remains in place following a volatile weekend that saw the U.S. bomb three nuclear sites in Iran. While fears mounted that such action could disrupt global oil supply, market reactions defied expectations.

>>> From Wednesday afternoon: President Trump says U.S. will meet with Iran next week

Oil Traders Surprised as Prices Fall After U.S. Strikes

Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Finance at Texas Christian University, said traders were bracing for impact.

“The assumption immediately is, ‘OK, the flow will be shut in,’” Seng said. “They export about 1.7 million barrels of oil a day. So traders had to be really tense over the weekend because when the market shuts down on Friday, it doesn't open again until Sunday evening.”

But instead of a surge, oil prices dipped on Monday. The market opened the week with a wide $9 trading range, ultimately settling lower than the previous Friday.

“There was this very bizarre reversal to where we are actually at lower oil prices than last Friday,” Seng said. “So yes, I would look for gasoline prices to come down as a result of that.”

Experts: Don’t Expect More U.S. Drilling Just Yet

While President Trump has reiterated calls to boost domestic production to ease consumer costs, Seng said energy companies aren’t likely to increase drilling anytime soon. Many will hedge production to manage risk in such an unstable global climate.

“The only price-setting organization in the world is OPEC,” Seng noted. “U.S. oil and gas companies, they can't do price fixing. They're at the mercy of the market, just as we're at the mercy of the price at the gas pump.”

Oklahoma Drivers Seeing Relief at the Pump

As of this week, drivers are seeing some relief. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gas stands at $2.82, which is 17 cents less than this time last year. In Tulsa, prices average $2.91, down from $3.12 one year ago.

Still, with the Iran-Israel situation unresolved, volatility in energy markets is likely to continue.

“The volatility will remain to the extent that the future of Iran and Israel is uncertain,” Seng said.

MORE COVERAGE:

1. 6/21/2025: Trump calls U.S. strikes on Iran a "spectacular military success," warns of more attacks if Iran doesn't make peace
2. Sen. Markwayne Mullin defends Trump’s Iran strike announcement, calls it an end to 'forever war'
3. 6/24/2025: Walters outlines how Oklahoma schools should teach Israel-Iran War