Oklahoma’s 2026 campaign season already underway

Although the 2026 election is still more than a year away, campaigning in Oklahoma is already heating up. Vice President of EyesOver Technologies Kyle Loveless says candidates are already being forced to make moves, or risk falling behind.

Candidates Already Positioning Themselves

Loveless says the campaign cycle is well underway.

“If you’re not in the races now, I would say in the next two weeks, you better get in," he said

Loveless emphasized that modern campaigns require significant early preparation, likening them to running a Fortune 500 company in under 18 months.

“There’s no extensions and it’s a binary choice: this person or that person,” he said. “That’s why campaigns need to gear up early... that requires money, that requires organization, that requires a lot of things people don’t see.”

Voter Fatigue and the Long Campaign Season

One factor contributing to the early start is the scarcity of experienced campaign staff.

“There’s a limited talent pool,” Loveless said. “The best people are going to get sucked up by the best campaigns early on. You’ve got to pay them and get them on board.”

He also noted that Oklahoma’s structure, where many statewide positions are elected, further drives long and costly elections.

The Problem with Polling

Loveless said traditional polling is becoming increasingly unreliable due to costs and social pressures.

According to Loveless, this leads to a “herding effect,” where early polls shape subsequent ones, regardless of their accuracy.

"We still do polling, we think that it has its place but by and large it's fundamentally flawed," he said.

Social Pressure and Hidden Support

Loveless pointed to the long-standing underrepresentation of Trump supporters in polls as one example of bias.

“People do not want to tell people on the phone or online that they’re supporting Trump,” he said. “If you are a conservative or Republican in California, New York ... you’re not going to tell people.”

He said the same phenomenon applies to progressives, like Bernie Sanders supporters.

“A lot of times, people don’t tell pollsters the truth,” Loveless said.

A Shift Toward Online Behavior

EyesOver Technologies is increasingly looking at how people behave online to understand voter sentiment more accurately.

"We have found that people are more true to themselves when they are posting their opinions about President Trump or any other thing online via Twitter, Facebook," Loveless said.

The company is investing in artificial intelligence to analyze these behaviors in real time, rather than relying on delayed and costly phone polls.

Trump’s Strength in 2025

With the 2024 presidential election behind them, Loveless believes Trump remains a strong contender.

“If the election were today, he would probably win by a larger margin than he did in November, that's what we have found,” he said. "His base has stayed with him by and large."

Top Issues for Oklahoma Voters

Loveless outlined the leading issues driving Oklahoma voters heading into 2026:

1. Jobs and the Economy: “Oklahoma City has the lowest unemployment in the entire country right now,” he said. “But it’s still on people’s minds — we don’t want to mess it up.”
2. Taxes: “I think the governor wanted to have a bigger tax cut, ” Loveless said of the recent legislation that restructured tax brackets.
3. Social Issues: “Oklahomans are still a pro-life state,” Loveless said. “And it's also a tax modernization as well. We're going from about four or five or six different brackets down to just a few. So it's a little so on top of the tax cut you're having also a restructuring as well."
4. Government Waste: Loveless noted that cutting government waste is much harder than identifying it. “You're usually taking someone’s power or someone's job, which is always hard to do.”
5. Education and Religious Freedom: Loveless said the controversy over St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School and the state’s school choice tax credits remain key topics. I think it was difficult and it's going to be hard for AG Drummond to explain why people of faith and the people that were supporting St. his doors, he called them a cancer,” he said.

A Crowded Governor’s Race

With Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former Oklahoma House Speaker Charles McCall already in the race, speculation continues to swirl around State Superintendent Ryan Walters.

Loveless noted that fundraising may be an uphill battle for Walters.

“It’s very difficult to go from zero, and I mean relatively to $3 million,” he said. “If you’ve been to any Republican event across the state and he’s there, he probably gets the loudest applause,” Loveless said.