Economist discusses potential economic impact of mass deportations

President Donald Trump has promised the largest mass deportation in U.S. history, with tens of thousands already deported in the first five weeks of his second term.

There are still questions: Will the deportations ramp up? How will they affect the American labor force?

Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist with BOK Financial, spoke with News On 6's Dave Davis to provide insight.

Q: On its face, this sounds like it could get political. Is this a political issue to you?

A: "It can get mired in politics really quickly in the way we implement it, but that's not how we're viewing it, Dave. I want to show your viewers we’re approaching this from an apolitical standpoint. This is about thinking about how our economy can grow going forward.

There are really two big variables on how we grow as an economy. One is productivity. You recently had a segment on productivity and the possibilities of AI improving that, but that's a more cyclical way to grow. The bigger issue is the size of our labor force, and this is where our organic demographics, just our basic population growth that we're creating, has been slowing for a number of decades, and it might go negative over the next 10 years.

If the labor force shrinks, that really limits our ability to grow our economy on a go-forward basis. If we didn't have $36 or $37 trillion in debt, it might not be that big of an issue, but we do, so growth is going to be vitally important for us going forward."

Q: What is the relationship between undocumented immigrants and the labor force as a whole in America?

A: "The data that I've been able to find is somewhere between 6 and 8% of the entire labor force which is about 170 million people, but 6 to 8% of that is estimated to be undocumented workers.

But you get into industries like leisure and hospitality, construction, agriculture, we’re talking much higher percentages than that. And so as we go through this process, look, Dave, I think we can all agree we don't need other countries' criminals in our country. We've got enough of our own.

But then as you go through this process, as President Trump and [his administration] go through this process, if they become overly aggressive and we start to then deport people that are actually part of the workforce, that's really going to have an impact on the growth of our economy going forward."

Q: When looking at immigration policy as a whole, past administrations have used executive orders to make changes. Congress is in session year-round. What do you think Congress could potentially do to cement some policies?

A: "You know, Dave, that’s a great point because here’s the opportunity that we have. If we can work together and come up with a cogent immigration policy that provides a path for those people that want to come to this country, that want to work, that are willing to put in the time and effort to become Americans, that opportunity is there.

We're going to need those people going forward. So there's a huge opportunity for our leaders to come together and create some type of policy like that. I'm hoping they do. And let’s get away from this all-good or all-bad thought process on immigration."