Q&A: How new tariffs could impact Oklahoma

As new tariffs on imports from Canada, China, and Mexico take effect, questions are mounting about how they will impact businesses and consumers across Oklahoma. Some argue the tariffs will protect American industries, while others warn of rising prices and economic instability.

To better understand the local impact, News On 6 spoke with Jason Walter, Ph.D., an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tulsa. He breaks down what Oklahomans can expect from the tariff changes and whether they could lead to a broader economic slowdown.

Q: What industries in Oklahoma will feel the biggest impact from these tariffs?

A: “For Oklahoma, especially since we have an agriculture, commodity, and energy-based economy, all of those things are going to be impacted—and not in a positive way. Our agricultural producers are going to have fewer outlets to sell their products, and that’s likely to have a detrimental effect on the economy.”

Q: How might these tariffs affect everyday consumers in Oklahoma?

A: “There’s a lot of things that we consume from both Canada and Mexico, and we’re going to see either higher prices or less availability of these products. For example, we import a lot of vehicles from Mexico, so we’re likely going to see higher prices on cars. Even local businesses that produce goods here in Oklahoma could face higher costs for materials like chemicals and machinery, making it harder for them to operate.”

Q: Some supporters of the tariffs argue that they could bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Do you think that’s likely?

A: “If some of that production comes back to the United States, that could be beneficial. We could start developing our own industries. However, we’ve seen more of these producers moving out of the U.S. and it’s unlikely that these jobs or that manufacturing will return. In the case of China, they may try to circumvent the tariff and just import in a different country and then have that country export to us.”

Q: Senator James Lankford and others say the tariffs are also a tool for national security and negotiating with countries like Mexico. Could they be effective?

A: “It’s plausible that tariffs could be used as a negotiation tactic, but in the foreseeable future, this is going to have a fairly severe impact on our economy. These tariffs, they’re fairly significant and they’ve been placed on our three largest trading partners. The likelihood that not only does this have a detrimental economic impact but potentially leads to rescission is a very real possibility. In terms of de-escalation, that’s not the initial response in Mexico. It sounds like they’re also planning a response.”

Q: Some critics warn that these tariffs could slow down economic growth or even lead to a recession. What’s your take?

A: “Given the severity of these tariffs, it’s likely that we’re going to see, if not a reduction in economic growth, then an actual recession. We’re talking about several trillion dollars in trade between the U.S. and these countries. For Oklahoma, especially since we have agriculture, commodity, energy-based economy, all of those things are going to be impacted and they’re not going to be impacted in a positive way.”

Q: What should Oklahomans watch for in the coming months?

A: “Consumers are likely to see higher prices and producers are likely to see lower prices for their products.”