Thunder Talk with Dean & John: Thunder-Pacers Game 3 preview, What to watch

On the latest edition of Thunder Talk from Oklahoma’s Own digital studio, Dean Blevins and John Holcomb broke down what’s at stake in Wednesday night’s pivotal Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. With the series tied 1-1, they highlighted a telling stat: in NBA playoff history, the team that wins Game 3 of a tied series goes on to win the series more than 80% of the time.

You can WATCH the full episode on News On 6's YouTube channel.

The numbers raise the stakes, but both analysts agree this matchup still feels unpredictable — especially as the series shifts to Indiana.

Strategic Adjustments on the Horizon

Game 3 often brings the most significant coaching adjustments, and Wednesday should be no exception. With extra time to prepare, teams have the chance to recalibrate. Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault has proven himself one of the NBA’s brightest strategists, but Indiana’s Rick Carlisle brings just as much experience and adaptability.

Expect the Pacers to put more offensive responsibility on Tyrese Haliburton, who tends to lift Indiana’s performance dramatically when he scores 20 or more points. Whether it’s shifting ball screens higher or forcing mismatches, Carlisle is likely to tweak his game plan to give Haliburton room to operate — though Chet Holmgren’s length and timing in Game 2 made that difficult.

Thunder Depth Continues to Shine

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the steady force for Oklahoma City throughout the series, despite taking plenty of physical contact. He hasn’t always received favorable calls, but his ability to drive and finish continues to define the Thunder offense.

One key storyline Wednesday night will be what happens when SGA rests. Indiana has struggled to capitalize so far, even though Oklahoma City has been +8 with SGA on the floor. The Thunder’s deep and defensively elite bench continues to hold its own during those key stretches, typically early in the second and fourth quarters.

Matchups to Watch

The Thunder’s decision to start Cason Wallace and go smaller has paid off defensively, even if some questioned the move after Game 1. Wallace, along with veteran Alex Caruso, has helped limit both Haliburton and Pascal Siakam — two players Indiana needs more production from.

Holmgren’s ability to switch and disrupt Haliburton on the perimeter has been a critical factor, while Caruso’s physicality has limited Siakam’s post effectiveness. Oklahoma City’s defenders have made life difficult for Indiana’s stars, holding both Haliburton and Siakam below 20 points in the first two games.

Fouls, Free Throws, and Physical Play

Foul calls are already a talking point. Indiana has been called for eight more fouls across the first two games, and Oklahoma City has attempted and made more free throws. That gap isn’t massive, but it leans in the Thunder’s favor — though Blevins and Holcomb noted it’s a byproduct of OKC’s physical, downhill attack.

Meanwhile, Haliburton has yet to attempt a free throw in the series — a reflection of his style more than poor officiating. Indiana’s offense often favors drive-and-kick actions rather than attacking the rim through contact, which results in fewer foul calls.

Role Players and Home-Court Boost

As the series moves to Indianapolis, role players on both sides could become X-factors. Historically, supporting players shoot better and play looser at home. Indiana could see offensive lifts from Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, or Andrew Nembhard — who had a strong Game 1 but disappeared in Game 2.

For Oklahoma City, the consistent depth remains a weapon. The Thunder don’t suit up anyone who isn’t a capable defender, giving them flexibility and matchup options that few teams can replicate.

Rebounding and Intangibles

One of the biggest improvements from Game 1 to Game 2 was on the glass. The Thunder corrected early rebounding issues and showed more intensity tracking loose balls. Holmgren, in particular, looked sharper and more aware. Expect that to be a key focus again Wednesday night.

While Indiana will look to reestablish itself at home, Oklahoma City has repeatedly shown an elite ability to “problem solve” — a mindset the team has embraced all season. If Jalen Williams and Holmgren match their Game 2 energy and execution, the Thunder will have a strong chance to take control of the series.

Prediction: Oklahoma City 117, Indiana 114 — a close game that could come down to the final possession.

Stay with Oklahoma’s Own for full coverage before, during, and after Game 3.